Dolphins vs Chiefs — Week 9, 2023
The Dolphins took over trailing 21-14 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 14, Chiefs 21. Chiefs won 21-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Dolphins ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.7% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 8.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end to 50 for 25 yards (35-Ja.Watson; 6-B.Cook).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to KC 31 for 19 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 31-R.Mostert [90-C.Omenihu].
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle.
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Wilson.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 31, and recovers at KC 44.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Curl route | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.96 pts |
| Spike it | -0.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.