Bengals vs Chiefs — Week 21, 2022
The Bengals took over tied at 20 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 20, Chiefs 23. Chiefs won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Bengals ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 6, 2:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.1% for Bengals. Our model starts at 53.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins to CIN 16 for 10 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end to CIN 19 for 3 yards (51-M.Danna).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on CIN-9-J.Burrow, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-H.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 33 for 23 yards (23-J.Williams) [8-C.Dunlap].
- (:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst to CIN 35 for 2 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Irwin.
- (:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 28 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (:41) 4-D.Chrisman punts 54 yards to KC 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 24-S.Moore pushed ob at KC 47 for 29 yards (17-S.Morgan).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.35 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-4.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -1.83 pts |
| Quick out | -1.86 pts |
| QB keep | -1.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.92 pts |
| Inside run | -2.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.58 pts |
| Curl route | -2.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Play action | -3.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.80 pts |
| Deep post | -4.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.