Colts vs Steelers — Week 12, 2022
The Colts took over trailing 24-17 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 17, Steelers 24. Steelers won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 7, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.5% for Colts. Our model starts at 11.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-M.Pittman to IND 35 for 28 yards (34-T.Edmunds, 29-L.Wallace). PIT-29-L.Wallace was injured during the play. Penalty on PIT-29-L.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 39 for 4 yards (57-M.Adams).
- (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods to PIT 44 for 17 yards (29-L.Wallace).
- (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to PIT 40 for 4 yards (90-T.Watt; 97-C.Heyward). PIT-29-L.Wallace was injured during the play.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Pierce.
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 37 for 3 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 33 for 4 yards (29-L.Wallace).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at PIT 40 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], recovered by IND-75-W.Fries at PIT 40.
- (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles up the middle to PIT 26 for 14 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
- (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to PIT 26 for no gain (56-A.Highsmith).
- (:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 1-P.Campbell (20-C.Sutton) [97-C.Heyward].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.59 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| Curl route | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.84 pts |
| QB keep | -0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.09 pts |
| Play action | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.21 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.