Cardinals vs Vikings — Week 8, 2022

What really happened

Final: Cardinals 26, Vikings 34. Vikings won 34-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Cardinals ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 19, 4:31 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 9.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-R.Moore to ARI 23 for 4 yards (39-C.Sullivan).
2. (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 34 for 11 yards (3-C.Dantzler).
3. (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 38 for 4 yards (7-P.Peterson).
4. (3:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 26-E.Benjamin (99-D.Hunter).
5. (3:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 24-D.Williams to MIN 44 for 6 yards (99-D.Hunter).
6. (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Hopkins [99-D.Hunter].
7. (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 83-G.Dortch (39-C.Sullivan).
8. (2:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 26-E.Benjamin to MIN 41 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.50 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.