Buccaneers vs Packers — Week 3, 2022
The Buccaneers took over trailing 14-6 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 12, Packers 14. Packers won 14-12 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 11, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.7% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 6.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage to TB 20 for 9 yards (25-K.Nixon).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage to TB 35 for 15 yards (25-K.Nixon).
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage to TB 40 for 5 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette to GB 43 for 17 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-C.Brate to GB 32 for 11 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left.
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette ran ob at GB 22 for 10 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-S.Miller to GB 18 for 4 yards (59-D.Campbell; 25-K.Nixon).
- (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage to GB 10 for 8 yards (29-R.Douglas).
- (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 10-S.Miller (59-D.Campbell).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to GB 1 for 2 yards (94-D.Lowry; 59-D.Campbell).
- (:21) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.01 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.01 pts |
| Curl route | -0.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.43 pts |
| Play action | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| QB keep | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.62 pts |
| Spike it | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Outside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.