Bears vs Vikings — Week 5, 2022
The Bears took over trailing 29-22 with 2:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bears 22, Vikings 29. Vikings won 29-22 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.0% for Bears. Our model starts at 8.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at CHI 33 for 8 yards (3-C.Dantzler).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to CHI 36 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks; 54-E.Kendricks) [97-H.Phillips].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 25 for -11 yards (sack split by 98-D.Wonnum and 55-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (98-D.Wonnum) [98-D.Wonnum], recovered by CHI-62-L.Patrick at CHI 25.
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to CHI 46 for 21 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 17-I.Smith-Marsette to MIN 39 for 15 yards (3-C.Dantzler). FUMBLES (3-C.Dantzler), RECOVERED by MIN-3-C.Dantzler at MIN 39. 3-C.Dantzler to CHI 45 for 16 yards (11-D.Mooney).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.89 pts |
| Spike it | -0.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.