Commanders vs Giants — Week 15, 2022
The Commanders took over trailing 20-12 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 12, Giants 20. Giants won 20-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Commanders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 43, 1:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 6.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel pushed ob at NYG 30 for 27 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas pushed ob at NYG 24 for 6 yards (30-D.Holmes). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas to NYG 24 for 6 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 1-J.Dotson pushed ob at NYG 10 for 14 yards (44-N.McCloud).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 1-J.Dotson (44-N.McCloud).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end to NYG 1 for 9 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end pushed ob at NYG 1 for 9 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right [51-A.Ojulari].
- (:56) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (30-D.Holmes) [97-D.Lawrence].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.94 pts |
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Spike it | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.