Cowboys vs 49ers — Week 20, 2022
The Cowboys took over trailing 19-12 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 12, 49ers 19. 49ers won 19-12 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Cowboys ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 18, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 9.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Schultz (57-D.Greenlaw).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Gallup (7-C.Ward).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 18 for 0 yards (56-S.Ebukam).
- (2:11) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SF 26, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.58 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.58 pts |
| Curl route | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.25 pts |
| QB keep | +0.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.00 pts |
| Quick out | -0.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.88 pts |
| Spike it | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.