Vikings vs Giants — Week 19, 2022
The Vikings took over trailing 31-24 with 2:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 24, Giants 31. Giants won 31-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Vikings ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 12, 2:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 8.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 18 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 46 for 13 yards (30-D.Holmes; 20-J.Love).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen.
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-D.Cook pushed ob at MIN 48 for 2 yards (24-D.Belton) [97-D.Lawrence].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Osborn (28-C.Flott).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to NYG 49 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.06 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.06 pts |
| Curl route | -0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.44 pts |
| Play action | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| QB keep | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| Spike it | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Outside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.