Dolphins vs Bills — Week 19, 2022
The Dolphins took over trailing 34-31 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 31, Bills 34. Bills won 34-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Dolphins ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 14, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.0% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 29.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill.
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete deep right to 10-T.Hill.
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at MIA 39 for 25 yards (31-D.Marlowe).
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right [91-E.Oliver]. Thrown away under pressure.
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 48 for 14 yards (7-T.Johnson) [58-M.Milano].
- (3:26) (No Huddle) 26-S.Ahmed left guard to MIA 48 for no gain (58-M.Milano).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki (24-K.Elam). BUF-24-K.Elam was injured during the play. K.Elam walks off.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.22 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.46 pts |
| QB keep | -0.54 pts |
| Play action | -0.83 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.97 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Deep post | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.41 pts |
| Outside run | -1.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.24 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.