Jaguars vs Chargers — Week 19, 2022
The Jaguars took over trailing 30-28 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 31, Chargers 30. Jaguars won 31-30 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Jaguars ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 21, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.4% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 38.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (8-K.Van Noy).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 33 for 12 yards (9-K.Murray).
- (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 41 for 8 yards (36-J.Taylor).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to 50 for 9 yards (23-B.Callahan).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones pushed ob at LAC 45 for 5 yards (36-J.Taylor).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end to LAC 41 for 4 yards (49-D.Tranquill, 9-K.Murray).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 13-C.Kirk.
- (1:28) 1-T.Etienne right end to LAC 16 for 25 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to LAC 18 for -2 yards (56-M.Fox).
- (:03) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.55 pts |
| Curl route | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Deep post | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.