Ravens vs Bengals — Week 19, 2022

What really happened

Final: Ravens 17, Bengals 24. Bengals won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Playoff football. Ravens ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:14 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.2% for Ravens. Our model starts at 17.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:14) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CIN 40 for 6 yards (20-E.Apple).
2. (3:10) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley right end to CIN 38 for 2 yards (30-J.Bates).
3. (2:28) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to CIN 37 for 1 yard (55-L.Wilson).
4. (2:00) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele and 65-P.Mekari reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley right tackle to CIN 33 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).
5. (1:25) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 27-J.Dobbins.
6. (1:17) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins to CIN 17 for 11 yards (57-G.Pratt, 30-J.Bates).
7. (:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (57-G.Pratt).
8. (:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 89-M.Andrews.
9. (:15) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Andrews.
10. (:08) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left (21-M.Hilton).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.