Raiders vs Chargers — Week 1, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 24-19 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 19, Chargers 24. Chargers won 24-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 21, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.3% for Raiders. Our model starts at 18.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LV 33 for 12 yards (26-A.Samuel).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 40 for 7 yards (23-B.Callahan).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (98-A.Johnson).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 37 for -3 yards (sack split by 97-J.Bosa and 56-M.Fox). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], recovered by LV-76-J.Simpson at LV 35.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 28 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], recovered by LV-74-K.Miller at LV 28.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.