Packers vs Lions — Week 9, 2022
The Packers took over trailing 15-9 with 2:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Packers 9, Lions 15. Lions won 15-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Packers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 43, 2:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.9% for Packers. Our model starts at 16.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Deguara to GB 48 for 5 yards (5-D.Elliott).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 28-A.Dillon.
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to DET 49 for 3 yards (49-C.Board). FUMBLES (49-C.Board), and recovers at DET 46. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to DET 49 for 3 yards (49-C.Board). FUMBLES (49-C.Board), ball out of bounds at DET 49.
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 13-A.Lazard.
- (:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 13-A.Lazard.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 8-Am.Rodgers (38-C.Moore).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 11-S.Watkins.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Deep post | +1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.45 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -1.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.