Colts vs Titans — Week 4, 2022
The Colts took over trailing 24-17 with 4:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 17, Titans 24. Titans won 24-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 34, 4:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.4% for Colts. Our model starts at 16.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce.
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 22 for 44 yards (3-C.Farley).
- (4:01) 21-N.Hines right tackle to TEN 22 for no gain (93-T.Tart).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 21-N.Hines to TEN 25 for -3 yards (21-R.McCreary) [96-D.Autry].
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry).
- (2:03) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -1.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.