Chargers vs 49ers — Week 10, 2022
The Chargers took over trailing 19-16 with 2:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 16, 49ers 22. 49ers won 22-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 1, 2:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.2% for Chargers. Our model starts at 27.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:03) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-T.McKitty (54-F.Warner).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 88-T.McKitty to LAC 8 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). 5 YAC
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer [75-J.Willis].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.31 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-3.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.46 pts |
| Quick out | -1.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.66 pts |
| QB keep | -1.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.78 pts |
| Deep post | -1.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.01 pts |
| Play action | -2.32 pts |
| Curl route | -2.32 pts |
| Spike it | -2.40 pts |
| Inside run | -2.45 pts |
| Outside run | -2.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.