Eagles vs Colts — Week 11, 2022
The Eagles took over trailing 16-10 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Colts 16. Eagles won 17-16 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 16.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [54-D.Odeyingbo].
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to PHI 33 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (3:39) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to IND 22 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to IND 17 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right end ran ob at IND 14 for 3 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left tackle to IND 11 for 3 yards (90-G.Stewart, 44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle to IND 9 for 2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to IND 6 for 3 yards (26-R.McLeod; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to IND 4 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 99-D.Buckner).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to IND 7 for -3 yards (58-B.Okereke; 32-J.Blackmon).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.64 pts |
| QB keep | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Deep post | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Spike it | -1.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.