Bengals vs Ravens — Week 19, 2022
The Bengals took over leading 24-17 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 24, Ravens 17. Bengals won 24-17 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Bengals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 19, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.2% for Bengals. Our model starts at 90.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Chase.
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 88-H.Hurst to CIN 19 for 9 yards (14-K.Hamilton; 18-R.Smith).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end to CIN 23 for 4 yards (99-O.Oweh).
- (3:25) 4-D.Chrisman punts 49 yards to BAL 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche pushed ob at BAL 49 for 16 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.93 pts |
| Deep post | -8.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.