Titans vs Jaguars — Week 18, 2022
The Titans took over trailing 20-16 with 2:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Titans 16, Jaguars 20. Jaguars won 20-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 24.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs left end pushed ob at TEN 36 for 11 yards (32-T.Campbell).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 45 for 9 yards (32-T.Campbell; 2-R.Jenkins).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 87-G.Swaim to 50 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 2-R.Jenkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs right end pushed ob at JAX 47 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs sacked at TEN 45 for -8 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen), and recovers at TEN 47. 11-J.Dobbs to TEN 48 for 1 yard (96-A.Gotsis; 98-C.Peters).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 25-H.Haskins to TEN 47 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun) [49-A.Key].
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 25-H.Haskins to JAX 44 for 9 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.24 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.19 pts |
| QB keep | +1.05 pts |
| Deep post | +0.77 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.