Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 11, 2022
The Chiefs took over trailing 27-23 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27. Chiefs won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.2% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 20.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to KC 43 for 18 yards (23-B.Callahan).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end ran ob at KC 49 for 6 yards (3-D.James).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [8-K.Van Noy].
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore to LAC 33 for 13 yards (26-A.Samuel).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to LAC 17 for 16 yards (22-J.Woods).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.85 pts |
| Deep post | +1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.27 pts |
| QB keep | +1.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -1.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.