Bills vs Jets — Week 9, 2022
The Bills took over trailing 20-17 with 1:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Bills 17, Jets 20. Jets won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:43 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.2% for Bills. Our model starts at 25.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis to BUF 33 for 18 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 24 for -9 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at BUF 24, recovered by BUF-71-R.Bates at BUF 14.
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Diggs.
- (:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 13-G.Davis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.10 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.52 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Deep post | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.