Raiders vs Jaguars — Week 9, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 24-20 with 3:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 20, Jaguars 27. Jaguars won 27-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 3:03 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.3% for Raiders. Our model starts at 24.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 39 for 8 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (32-T.Campbell).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 13-H.Renfrow.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.18 pts |
| QB keep | +1.05 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Deep post | +0.71 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.