Raiders vs Colts — Week 10, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 25-20 with 5:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 20, Colts 25. Colts won 25-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 5:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.8% for Raiders. Our model starts at 21.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (5:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-M.Hollins.
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins to LV 37 for 12 yards (5-S.Gilmore).
- (4:08) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-M.Hollins to LV 33 for 6 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 17-D.Adams to LV 39 for 6 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-D.Adams to IND 49 for 12 yards (26-R.McLeod).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to IND 47 for 2 yards (26-R.McLeod).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs pushed ob at IND 43 for 4 yards (5-S.Gilmore; 58-B.Okereke).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 22-A.Abdullah to IND 35 for 8 yards (26-R.McLeod). Penalty on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 84-K.Cole.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at IND 19 for 16 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Jacobs.
- (1:35) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to IND 16 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke; 5-S.Gilmore).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.62 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Deep post | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Spike it | -2.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.