Titans vs Texans — Week 16, 2022
The Titans took over trailing 19-14 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 14, Texans 19. Texans won 19-14 — the drive turnover.
Titans ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.5% for Titans. Our model starts at 18.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 31 for 6 yards (2-T.Thomas, 5-J.Pitre).
- (2:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 42 for 11 yards (92-R.Green, 5-J.Pitre).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass incomplete short right [52-J.Greenard].
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis left tackle to TEN 49 for 7 yards (91-R.Lopez).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis left tackle to HOU 45 for 6 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris [96-M.Collins] at HOU 42. 48-C.Harris pushed ob at TEN 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.57 pts |
| Curl route | +1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.94 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -1.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.