Jets vs Dolphins — Week 18, 2022
The Jets took over tied at 6 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Jets 6, Dolphins 11. Dolphins won 11-6 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 28, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 53.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYJ-19-J.Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 28.
- (4:39) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 32-Mi.Carter to NYJ 20 for 6 yards (52-E.Roberts).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 26 for 6 yards (28-K.Kohou).
- (3:15) 7-B.Mann punts 42 yards to MIA 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.80 pts |
| QB keep | +0.62 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Curl route | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Deep post | -3.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.