Cowboys vs Packers — Week 10, 2022
The Cowboys took over tied at 28 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 28, Packers 28. Tied 28-28 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.3% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 57.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (31-A.Amos).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 85-N.Brown (7-Q.Walker).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup.
- (1:49) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to GB 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-K.Nixon to GB 33 for 13 yards (45-M.Overton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.14 pts |
| Curl route | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Outside run | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.00 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.97 pts |
| Deep post | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.