Bills vs Ravens — Week 4, 2022
The Bills took over tied at 20 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bills 23, Ravens 20. Bills won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.2% for Bills. Our model starts at 53.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to BUF 24 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (3:35) (No Huddle) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to BUF 28 for 4 yards (96-B.Washington; 4-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 48 for 20 yards (32-M.Williams).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to BAL 45 for 7 yards (99-O.Oweh; 92-J.Madubuike).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BAL 36 for 9 yards.
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard to BAL 27 for -1 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-D.Singletary to BAL 11 for 16 yards (4-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (1:50) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left guard to BAL 3 for 8 yards (99-O.Oweh).
- (1:43) 17-J.Allen left guard to BAL 1 for 2 yards (93-C.Campbell; 36-C.Clark).
- (1:02) 17-J.Allen kneels to BAL 2 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 17-J.Allen kneels to BAL 3 for -1 yards.
- (:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.95 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.63 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| Curl route | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Play action | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.26 pts |
| Deep post | -2.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.