Chargers vs Falcons — Week 9, 2022
The Chargers took over tied at 17 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 20, Falcons 17. Chargers won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 32, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 48.6% for Chargers. Our model starts at 57.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to LAC 37 for 5 yards (47-A.Ebiketie; 54-R.Evans).
- (3:42) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to LAC 37 for no gain (54-R.Evans; 94-J.Dalton).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-D.Carter to LAC 43 for 6 yards (54-R.Evans). LAC-79-T.Pipkins was injured during the play.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 48 for 10 yards (26-I.Oliver; 22-C.Armstrong).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 5-J.Palmer to ATL 44 for 8 yards (22-C.Armstrong).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 30-A.Ekeler.
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 7-G.Everett to ATL 28 for 16 yards (47-A.Ebiketie).
- (:58) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to ATL 25 for 3 yards (27-R.Grant; 3-M.Walker).
- (:52) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to ATL 22 for 3 yards (3-M.Walker).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to ATL 20 for 2 yards (97-G.Jarrett, 54-R.Evans). FUMBLES (54-R.Evans), RECOVERED by ATL-95-T.Graham at ATL 17. 95-T.Graham to ATL 36 for 19 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LAC-71-M.Feiler at ATL 43. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Curl route | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Outside run | +0.10 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Play action | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
| Deep post | -3.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.