49ers vs Raiders — Week 17, 2022
The 49ers took over tied at 27 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 34, Raiders 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 55.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 3-R.McCloud [98-M.Crosby].
- (4:02) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 48 for 23 yards (21-A.Robertson).
- (3:19) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 85-G.Kittle.
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to LV 14 for 38 yards (33-R.Teamer; 37-T.Hall).
- (2:23) 24-J.Mason left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Curl route | +0.35 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.35 pts |
| QB keep | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Play action | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.86 pts |
| Deep post | -4.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.