Giants vs Vikings — Week 16, 2022
The Giants took over trailing 17-16 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Giants 24, Vikings 27. Vikings won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 48.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at NYG 26 for 1 yard (54-E.Kendricks).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins pushed ob at NYG 31 for 5 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (4:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Hodgins (58-J.Hicks).
- (4:10) 6-J.Gillan punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-58-C.Kreiter, recovered by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 23. 20-J.Love to NYG 29 for 6 yards (45-T.Dye).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Curl route | +0.64 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | -0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.87 pts |
| Deep post | -2.19 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.