Rams vs Seahawks — Week 18, 2022
The Rams took over tied at 16 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 16, Seahawks 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:19 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 54.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) 3-C.Akers right guard to LA 27 for 2 yards (10-U.Nwosu, 30-M.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 12-V.Jefferson.
- (1:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Atwell to LA 33 for 6 yards (30-M.Jackson).
- (1:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.36 pts |
| Curl route | +1.31 pts |
| Play action | +1.00 pts |
| QB keep | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.94 pts |
| Deep post | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.