Colts vs Jaguars — Week 6, 2022
The Colts took over trailing 27-26 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Colts 34, Jaguars 27. Colts won 34-27 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 34, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 53.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep middle to 1-P.Campbell [41-J.Allen].
- (2:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to IND 40 for 6 yards (26-S.Griffin).
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to IND 44 for 4 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 30-P.Lindsay to IND 49 for 5 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell to JAX 44 for 7 yards (26-S.Griffin) [52-D.Hamilton].
- (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 14-A.Pierce (26-S.Griffin).
- (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Woods.
- (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 29 for 15 yards (5-A.Cisco; 31-D.Williams).
- (:42) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan up the middle to JAX 33 for -4 yards (96-A.Gotsis).
- (:29) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay right tackle to JAX 32 for 1 yard (23-F.Oluokun, 44-T.Walker).
- (:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 30-P.Lindsay rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Outside run | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.59 pts |
| Deep post | -1.90 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.