Steelers vs Bengals — Week 1, 2022
The Steelers took over tied at 20 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 23, Bengals 20. Steelers won 23-20 — the drive missed field goal.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 54.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson (22-C.Awuzie). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 45 for 25 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
- (3:28) 11-C.Claypool right end pushed ob at CIN 43 for 12 yards (57-G.Pratt).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 18-D.Johnson [24-V.Bell].
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 11-C.Claypool to CIN 37 for 6 yards (21-M.Hilton).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson to CIN 37 for no gain (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
- (2:27) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.54 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.04 pts |
| Play action | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.08 pts |
| Deep post | -2.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.