Cowboys vs Bengals — Week 2, 2022
The Cowboys took over tied at 17 with 3:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 20, Bengals 17. Cowboys won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 55.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:45) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 49 for 24 yards (24-V.Bell).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to DAL 45 for -4 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [94-S.Hubbard]. DAL-86-D.Schultz was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb (92-B.Hill). Pass broken up by Hill at the line of scrimmage
- (2:20) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CIN 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.78 pts |
| Curl route | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Deep post | -2.02 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.