Browns vs Buccaneers — Week 12, 2022
The Browns took over tied at 17 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 17, Buccaneers 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 29, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.2% for Browns. Our model starts at 59.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to CLE 46 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield, 45-D.White). TB-31-A.Winfield was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to 50 for 4 yards (45-D.White; 54-L.David).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to TB 48 for 2 yards (98-A.Nelson).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 2 for 46 yards (30-D.Delaney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at TB 3 for 45 yards (30-D.Delaney).
- (:48) 24-N.Chubb right guard to TB 3 for no gain (54-L.David).
- (:24) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-22-K.Neal, Defensive Offside, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-2.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| Curl route | +0.75 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.88 pts |
| Deep post | -2.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.