Patriots vs Jets — Week 11, 2022
The Patriots took over tied at 3 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 10, Jets 3. Patriots won 10-3 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 34, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 58.7% for Patriots. Our model starts at 59.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers ran ob at NE 42 for 8 yards.
- (3:18) 10-M.Jones up the middle to NE 43 for 1 yard (79-T.Smart).
- (2:41) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 41 for -2 yards (3-J.Whitehead, 95-Q.Williams).
- (2:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-B.Berrios MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 20.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.55 pts |
| Curl route | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Outside run | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Play action | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
| Deep post | -3.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.