Chargers vs Broncos — Week 18, 2022
The Chargers took over trailing 31-28 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 28, Broncos 31. Broncos won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 40, 4:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 39.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Carter.
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short right to 34-L.Rountree to LAC 36 for 1 yard (96-E.Uwazurike).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass incomplete short left to 25-J.Kelley. Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (3:27) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to DEN 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| Curl route | +1.09 pts |
| QB keep | +0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Play action | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.83 pts |
| Deep post | -3.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.