Vikings vs Lions — Week 3, 2022
The Vikings took over trailing 24-21 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 28, Lions 24. Vikings won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 33.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to MIN 45 for 15 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Illegal Contact, declined.
- (3:23) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 17-K.Osborn.
- (3:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-J.Reagor to MIN 47 for 2 yards (54-A.McNeill).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen.
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen [53-C.Harris].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| Play action | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.74 pts |
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.