Dolphins vs Ravens — Week 2, 2022
The Dolphins took over trailing 38-35 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 42, Ravens 38. Dolphins won 42-38 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 32, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 35 for 3 yards (24-M.Peters).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to BAL 44 for 21 yards (32-M.Williams).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to BAL 35 for 9 yards (36-C.Clark).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle to BAL 7 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams).
- (:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Waddle (22-Da.Williams). BAL-22-Da.Williams was injured during the play.
- (:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.02 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.02 pts |
| QB keep | +1.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.99 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Deep post | +0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.