Lions vs Bills — Week 12, 2022
The Lions took over trailing 25-22 with 2:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Lions 25, Bills 28. Bills won 28-25 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.1% for Lions. Our model starts at 31.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:40) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DET 28 for 3 yards (7-T.Johnson).
- (2:10) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 32-D.Swift pushed ob at DET 42 for 14 yards (52-A.Klein).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams left guard to DET 47 for 5 yards (91-E.Oliver, 52-A.Klein).
- (1:57) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 32-D.Swift to DET 46 for -1 yards (52-A.Klein).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle to BUF 49 for 5 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
- (:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 32-D.Swift [97-J.Phillips].
- (:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 32 for 15 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 33 for 14 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Chark.
- (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.83 pts |
| Quick out | +0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Deep post | +0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.