Jets vs Steelers — Week 4, 2022
The Jets took over trailing 20-17 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Jets 24, Steelers 20. Jets won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Jets. Our model starts at 37.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to 50 for 15 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 20-Br.Hall left guard to NYJ 48 for -2 yards (21-T.Norwood).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 20-Br.Hall to PIT 46 for 6 yards (51-M.Jack).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to PIT 38 for 8 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick). PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 32-Mi.Carter to PIT 37 for 11 yards (35-A.Maulet) [50-M.Reed]. PIT-97-C.Heyward was injured during the play.
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 84-C.Davis to PIT 20 for 17 yards (55-D.Bush).
- (1:10) (No Huddle) 32-Mi.Carter left guard to PIT 15 for 5 yards (51-M.Jack).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left tackle to PIT 14 for 1 yard (56-A.Highsmith; 50-M.Reed). PENALTY on PIT-94-T.Alualu, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 14.
- (:45) 20-Br.Hall left tackle to PIT 2 for 7 yards (21-T.Norwood; 51-M.Jack).
- (:18) 20-Br.Hall left guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (39-M.Fitzpatrick), recovered by NYJ-83-T.Conklin at PIT 1. 83-T.Conklin to PIT 1 for no gain (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 20-Br.Hall left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| QB keep | +1.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.55 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Deep post | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.