Jaguars vs Cowboys — Week 15, 2022
The Jaguars took over trailing 34-31 with 3:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 34, Cowboys 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.8% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 31.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to JAX 30 for 5 yards (33-D.Clark).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to JAX 37 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Jones.
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 39-J.Agnew to JAX 42 for 5 yards (27-J.Kearse).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to 50 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs; 25-N.Wright).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to DAL 39 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse). FUMBLES (27-J.Kearse), RECOVERED by DAL-11-M.Parsons at DAL 38. 11-M.Parsons to DAL 38 for no gain (16-T.Lawrence).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.65 pts |
| QB keep | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.59 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Deep post | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.