Texans vs Colts — Week 18, 2022
The Texans took over trailing 31-24 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 32, Colts 31. Texans won 32-31 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 17, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.8% for Texans. Our model starts at 10.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Akins [99-D.Buckner].
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 88-J.Akins to HOU 25 for 8 yards (45-E.Speed).
- (2:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale left tackle to HOU 28 for 3 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 19-A.Rodgers to HOU 42 for 14 yards (25-R.Thomas).
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right.
- (2:03) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 15-C.Moore to IND 46 for 12 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale pushed ob at IND 44 for 2 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 32-J.Blackmon).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 28-R.Burkhead to IND 48 for 1 yard (31-B.Facyson).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at IND 18 for 30 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep left to 15-C.Moore.
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.43 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.43 pts |
| Deep post | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.12 pts |
| QB keep | -0.00 pts |
| Play action | -0.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.17 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.99 pts |
| Spike it | -1.14 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.