Colts vs Texans — Week 1, 2022
The Colts took over trailing 20-13 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 20, Texans 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Colts. Our model starts at 12.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 83-K.Granson (96-M.Collins).
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 17-M.Strachan to IND 36 for 16 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 45 for 9 yards (5-J.Pitre; 36-J.Owens).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle to HOU 42 for 13 yards (36-J.Owens).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to HOU 29 for 13 yards (36-J.Owens, 93-K.Hinish).
- (2:13) 28-J.Taylor right guard to HOU 15 for 14 yards (36-J.Owens).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.50 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| Play action | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Deep post | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| Spike it | -1.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.