Patriots vs Vikings — Week 12, 2022
The Patriots took over trailing 33-26 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 26, Vikings 33. Vikings won 33-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 13, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to NE 27 for 14 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle.
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at MIN 33 for 40 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end to MIN 30 for 3 yards (20-D.Shelley; 54-E.Kendricks).
- (3:02) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to MIN 30 for no gain (54-E.Kendricks).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIN 39 for -9 yards (99-D.Hunter).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 15-N.Agholor. NE-15-N.Agholor was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.13 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.13 pts |
| Deep post | -0.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| Play action | -0.51 pts |
| QB keep | -0.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.88 pts |
| Spike it | -1.24 pts |
| Outside run | -1.33 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.