Jaguars vs Texans — Week 5, 2022
The Jaguars took over trailing 13-6 with 3:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 6, Texans 13. Texans won 13-6 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 14, 3:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.0% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 9.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to JAX 22 for 8 yards (25-D.King).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 17-E.Engram.
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones to JAX 28 for 6 yards (25-D.King).
- (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram ran ob at JAX 33 for 5 yards (21-S.Nelson).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones to 50 for 17 yards (24-D.Stingley).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 1-T.Etienne.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-E.Engram.
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 11-M.Jones (92-R.Green).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-E.Engram.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.19 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.19 pts |
| Curl route | +0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.08 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.24 pts |
| Play action | -0.31 pts |
| QB keep | -0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.35 pts |
| Quick out | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.78 pts |
| Spike it | -1.02 pts |
| Outside run | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.