Lions vs Packers — Week 18, 2022
The Lions took over leading 20-16 with 3:27 left, 1st & 10 at the Packers 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Packers 16. Lions won 20-16 — the drive time expired.
Lions ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.8% for Lions. Our model starts at 88.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:27) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 34 for 11 yards (26-D.Savage).
- (2:35) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to GB 25 for 9 yards (59-D.Campbell; 26-D.Savage).
- (2:28) 30-Ja.Williams right tackle to GB 24 for 1 yard (91-P.Smith, 29-R.Douglas).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to GB 21 for 3 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 39 for -8 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Swift to GB 17 for 22 yards (90-J.Reed).
- (2:00) 30-Ja.Williams right tackle to GB 15 for 2 yards (51-K.Barnes, 93-T.Slaton).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 4-D.Chark to GB 6 for 9 yards (51-K.Barnes).
- (:33) 16-J.Goff kneels to GB 7 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.93 pts |
| QB keep | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Curl route | -2.38 pts |
| Play action | -4.11 pts |
| End-around | -4.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -7.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.22 pts |
| Deep post | -9.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.