Bengals vs Chiefs — Week 13, 2022
The Bengals took over leading 27-24 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24. Bengals won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Bengals ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 45, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 82.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 47 for 8 yards (32-N.Bolton).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard to KC 37 for 10 yards (22-J.Thornhill, 32-N.Bolton).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard to KC 34 for 3 yards (99-K.Saunders).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle to KC 32 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones; 55-F.Clark).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at KC 27 for 5 yards (21-T.McDuffie).
- (2:49) 34-S.Perine left tackle to KC 21 for 6 yards (21-T.McDuffie, 22-J.Thornhill).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at KC 28 for -7 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to KC 14 for 14 yards (23-J.Williams).
- (1:12) 9-J.Burrow kneels to KC 15 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 9-J.Burrow kneels to KC 16 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-9.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Quick out | -0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Curl route | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -3.78 pts |
| End-around | -4.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.15 pts |
| Deep post | -9.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.