Rams vs Buccaneers — Week 9, 2022
The Rams took over leading 13-9 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 13, Buccaneers 16. Buccaneers won 16-13 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 7, 1:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.6% for Rams. Our model starts at 85.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) 68-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 7 for no gain (50-V.Vea).
- (1:46) 10-C.Kupp right end to LA 12 for 5 yards (22-K.Neal).
- (1:39) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 13 for 1 yard (9-J.Tryon).
- (:54) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 40, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 40 for no gain (21-R.Yeast).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.85 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.87 pts |
| Play action | -3.17 pts |
| Curl route | -3.29 pts |
| End-around | -5.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.90 pts |
| Deep post | -7.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.