Chargers vs Raiders — Week 1, 2022
The Chargers took over leading 24-19 with 4:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 24, Raiders 19. Chargers won 24-19 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.1% for Chargers. Our model starts at 83.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:32) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LAC 29 for 4 yards (39-N.Hobbs, 33-R.Teamer).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 20-S.Michel right end to LAC 32 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby; 50-J.Brown).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams (39-N.Hobbs).
- (3:39) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 21 for no gain (36-J.Taylor).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-9.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.04 pts |
| Inside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| QB keep | -0.48 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Curl route | -2.13 pts |
| Play action | -4.09 pts |
| End-around | -4.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -7.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.52 pts |
| Deep post | -9.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.